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| Photo Source: Peter Christener, via Creative Commons. License available here. |
blog.
Contributing students: Maria Arruti Iparraguirre, Pamela Binda, Margarita Kuzmanova, Evelyn Lamb, Lara Morgan, Sean Norris, Quinn O'Dowd, Shawna Oliver, Alejandra-Isabel Otero Pires, and Charlotte Prieu
APRIL 30, 2020
EUROPE (Overview)
Reported by Lucas Henry, Coordinator of Academic Programs, European Union Center. Lucas is also a PhD candidate in musicology, with a research focus on European popular music, music festivals, and European Union cultural policy.
European Union, European Economic Area, and United Kingdom
Total reported cases: 1,128,118(Last week: 1,031,156)
COVID-19 related deaths: 131,419 (Last week: 111,152)
The EU/EEA/UK has 32.5% (last week: 38.6%) of the global total of reported cases and 53.2% (last week: 58.4%) of global total of COVID-19 related deaths.
Europe (EU, EEA, UK, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Serbia, Albania, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Kosovo, Turkey, Russian Federation, Belarus, Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Andorra, Monaco, Vatican City)
Total reported cases: 1,433,182 (last week: 1,260,413)
COVID-19 related deaths: 138,132 (last week: 116,279)
Europe as a continent has 41.3% (last week: 47.2%) of the global total of reported cases and 55.9% (last week: 62.1%) of global total of COVID-19 related deaths.
SOURCE:
European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control: https://qap.ecdc.europa.eu/public/extensions/COVID-19/COVID-19.html
Last week the European Union’s European Council (the institution made up of the 27 heads of the EU member states) convened to discuss both the upcoming long-term 7-year budget (the Multiannual Financial Framework) and the short term bailouts for EU member states. Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Council President Charles Michel both believe that the upcoming budget must account for “new circumstances” that have been exposed by the coronavirus crisis, and that the EU needs to “increase its firepower to be able to generate necessary investment across the whole European Union” in the aftermath. One of the necessary approaches is to quickly approve and implement a 500-billion-euro bailout in the immediate future, even though some commission officials have proposed that the bailouts should total up to 2 trillion in order to be effective.. This large supranational bailout suggests that the economic fallout on the continent could be the worst postwar economic crisis.
This week, in addition to their regular responses, the students contributing to this report have been tasked to find information regarding economic issues in individual member states.
SOURCES:
AUSTRIA
Report by Helena Ortlieb. Helena is a junior at DePaul, double majoring in History and German Studies. She studied abroad at Vienna during the Spring 2020 semester and participated in the Illinois in Vienna Program.
Total reported cases: 15,364 (994 confirmed cases in the past 14 days)
COVID-19 related deaths: 580.
Confirmed recoveries: 12,907.
SOURCE:
https://qap.ecdc.europa.eu/public/extensions/COVID-19/COVID-19.html
In the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic, it is easy to become overwhelmed with grief and fear, but Austria gives those of us still struggling through the worst of the virus hope. Austria is one of the first European countries to begin opening up its economy after a month of stay-at-home orders.
Austria was one of the first European countries to shut down, putting a stay-at-home order in place on March 16. In an interview with CNN on April 19, Chancellor of Austria, Sabastian Kurz, said he is proud of Austria’s swift and tough measures and attributes them to the significantly decreasing number of newly reported cases of COVID-19. These extreme measures early on, he believes, may have prevented the worst of the outbreak.
On April 14, small shops and businesses, including bookstores and home-good stores were able to reopen their doors with strict measures in place to protect both patrons and workers. There is a limited number of people allowed in a shop at a time, and masks must be worn by everyone at all times.
It is projected that on May 1, all stores, including hair salons, malls, etc. will be reopened with the same precautionary measures in place. Kurz also hopes that by mid-May, restaurants, cafes, and hotels will be able to reopen. He maintains, however, that public events (cultural or sporting) will be prohibited until the end of June if numbers continue to decrease and the government feels that everyone is safe to participate in public congregation.
With two weeks in between every new step to reopening Austria’s economy, Kurz believes that they will have time to understand the data and, if necessary, reinstate stay-at-home orders if the numbers increase.
SOURCES:
https://www.cnn.com/videos/tv/2020/04/19/exp-gps-0419-kurz-on-reopening-austrias-economy.cnn
https://medium.com/@bprainsack/covid-19-affects-us-all-unequally-lessons-from-austria-faf8398fddc1
https://info.gesundheitsministerium.at/dashboard_GenTod.html?l=en
BULGARIA
Report by Margarita Kuzmanova. Margarita is a freshman majoring in Aerospace Engineering.
Total reported cases: 1506 (last week: 1097)
COVID-19 related deaths: 66 (last week: 52)
Confirmed recoveries: 266 (last week: 190)
Bulgaria's GDP could decrease 4-12 % in the year 2020 due to impact of COVID-19 pandemic. Resources will be spent on healthcare, supporting the poor, temporary business loans and tax reliefs to decrease the rate of the economic decline and to secure positions of employment. A recovery of the economy is envisioned in 2021.
SOURCES:
CZECH REPUBLIC
Report by Quinn O’Dowd. Quinn is a second-year PhD student in the Department of Sociology, studying tourism and consumption.
Total reported cases: 7682 (last week: 7187)
COVID-19 related deaths: 236 (last week: 210)
Confirmed recoveries: 3314 (last week: 2152)
SOURCE:
Minister of Health Adam Vojtěch announced that children seven and under would be exempt from wearing face coverings in school and in groups of other children. People with mental illness and actors and moderators on TV will also be exempt from the face-covering mandate. From the 11th of May, shopping centers, hairdressers, theaters and cinemas will be open to a capacity of 100 people. The government has decided to not quickly reopen hotels, arguing that hotels can at least reopen their restaurants. According to the Minister of Finance, over the weekend the government will prepare a policy for helping small businesses, this policy is expected to follow the same guidelines as relief efforts made for self-employed people.
SOURCE:
FRANCE
Report by Charlotte Prieu. Charlotte is a PhD candidate in French linguistics in the Department of French and Italian.
Total reported cases: 129,581 (last week: 120,804)
4019 currently in intensive care units (last week: 5053)
COVID-19 related deaths: 24,376 (last week: 21,856)
Confirmed recoveries: 49,476 (last week: 42,088)
SOURCE:
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| Image source: France's Minister of Solidarity and Health |
SOURCE:
Some of the measures for reopening include but are not limited to reopening schools (K-6 for red areas and K-8 for green ones), reopening non-essential stores, wearing masks in public transportation and in schools for all staff and faculty and starting at the 6th grade for students, limiting the number of students in classes, and reopening parks and gardens but keeping theaters and museum closed.
SOURCE:
France is going through a recession. On April 30th, the INSEE has announced that the GDP decreased by 5.8% during the first trimester of 2020, making it the worst recession the country has known since 1949. The government is hopeful that the end of lockdown will boost the economy but citizens still have to be careful so that the country is not hit by a second wave of infections.
SOURCE:
GERMANY
Report by Evelyn Lamb, Sean Norris, and Shawna Oliver.
Evelyn is a sophomore majoring in economics and Germanic studies, with a minor in art history. She plans to pursue graduate studies in German.
Sean is a junior majoring in global studies and German.
Shawna is a senior majoring in history. She is also a member of the Air Force ROTC.
*Germany is an excellent case to highlight discrepancies in statistics. Each student looked to different reporting agencies for information, and each returned different results. See below.
Worldometer
Total reported cases: 161,985 (last week: 150,648)
COVID-19 related deaths: 6072 (last week: 5315)
Confirmed recoveries: 123,500 (last week: 106,800)
SOURCE:
World Health Organization (WHO)
Total reported cases: 159,119 (last week: 148,046)
COVID-19 related deaths: 6288 (last week: 5094)
SOURCE:
Robert Koch Institut (RKI)
Total reported cases: 157,641 (last week: 145,694)
COVID-19 related deaths: 6115 (last week: 4879)
Confirmed recoveries: c.120,400 (last week: c. 99,400)
SOURCE:
Since relaxing restrictions on shopping and allowing small businesses to open, the COVID-19 infection rate has increased from .7 (at the height of the stay-at-home order) to 1.0. This means every person with the virus is infecting one other person on average, which is a step back in terms of Germany’s containment goals.
On Tuesday April 28, German citizens have been strongly advised to continue to stay home and comply with social distancing measures since there is data that is showing that the virus is starting to accelerate again. This is due to the basic reproduction number which indicates “how many new cases on infected person generates on average” has now risen to 1 compared to the 0.7 in mid-April. The data, along with extended social distancing measures, has created division among German Politicians and people.
On Saturday April 24, over 100 people were arrested by the German police after protesting the COVID 19 lockdown measures. They gathered in a Berlin square, however, due to gatherings of 20 or more people are currently banned in Germany, the protesters were asked to disband and leave. When they refused, they were taken into custody for violations of the containment measures in the Infection Protection Act. Just like around the world, the quarantines are beginning to affect the population of Germany social and economically. Social distancing measures will remain in place until at least May 3.
In Germany this week economic researchers have predicted a deep recession. According to a Deutsche Welle article, the pandemic will hit Germany’s economy harder than anything in recent decades and that a recovery in 2020 or 2021 was highly unlikely. Germany’s Economic Minister Peter Altmaier stated in the article that this will most likely be the most trying economic event since the Federal Republic formed in 1949. Altmaier believes that the low point for the economy will hit in June of 2020, but then grow slow and gradually to recovery. Some even consider this wishful thinking.
Sources including Deutsche Welle, Market Watch, and the New York Times report universally that the Germany economy is expected to contract by approximately 6.3 percent in 2020 and will struggle to recover even by 2021. There is a general consensus that this recession will surpass the 2009 crisis, which contracted the German economy by only 5 percent. The economic downturn can be attributed to rising unemployment and large government spending on domestic relief efforts and medical research.
The head of the German Institute of Economic Research is one of the biggest propagators of the impending recession, telling reporters that the current projections are optimistic, as they are based on the assumption that there will be no second wave of infections, and that economic recovery will depend on the unfolding of the pandemic.
In an attempt to mitigate the effects of unemployment, Germany is offering short-time work schemes to stagger employee work schedules and avoid layoffs.
SOURCES:
ITALY
Report by Lara Morgan. Lara is a freshman with a major in Global Studies and a minor in French.
Total reported cases: 207,428 (last week: 189,973)
COVID-19 related deaths: 28,236 (last week: 25,549)
Confirmed recoveries: 78,249 (last week: 57,576)
100,943 are currently positive for coronavirus. Of the currently positive cases, 81,796 are in home isolation, 17,569 and 1578 are in intensive care. The situation continues to gradually improve.
SOURCE:
Italy is a country with an immense number of small and middle size companies based on family nuclei. It is very difficult for these companies and their relatively small capitals to maintain themselves during this time. Italy’s economy also has a huge reliance on tourism, but is expecting very few tourists this year--the country’s economy was already having serious problems before the pandemic, and is now in even worse condition. In the first quarter of the year, Italy’s GDP fell by 4.7% compared to the previous quarter. The decline in the GDP is of an amount unprecedented since the beginning of this period’s observation in 1995. The Financial Times has predicted that Italy could enter its fourth recession in a decade. Actions to prevent this include an effort on the part of Italian officials to convince the member states of the European Union to create a fund with the purpose of rebuilding economies post-pandemic. About a third of Italy’s employed population has had to stop working due to the virus. May 1st, Europe’s Labor Day, is not accompanied this year by celebration or public protest, but met with fear and unease, and more symbolic significance than usual.
SOURCES:
POLAND
Report by Pamela Binda. Pamela is a senior with a major in Political Science and a minor in Slavic Languages, Literature, and Culture.
Total reported cases: 12,877 (last week: 10,619)
COVID-19 related deaths: 644 (last week: 426)
Confirmed recoveries: 3491 (last week: 1740)
SOURCES:
The number of coronavirus cases within Poland has exceeded its 10,000-person capacity. Poland has extended its internal border controls until May 13th, deeming it as a necessary precaution to keep coronavirus infections low. Poland has continued to push its presidential election that was scheduled on May 10th. However, the mail ballot voting system has already been overloaded by the volume of voters. The parliamentary body has until May 6th to officially approve the legality of the system. Poland is set to reopen shopping malls and hotels on May 4th and open pre-schools on May 6th. Citizens are still required to wear masks until May 24th and schools are set to open then. The Polish economy has experienced its first recession in over 30 years by shrinking by 4.6%.
SPAIN
Report by Maria Arruti Iparraguirre. Maria is a PhD student in Spanish Literatures and Cultures.
Total reported cases: 212,917 (last week: 208,389)
COVID-19 related deaths: 24,275 (last week: 21,717)
Confirmed recoveries: 108,947 (last week: 89,915)
SOURCE:
Experts foresee that Spain will be among the countries that will suffer the most from the initial impact of the economic crisis after COVID-19. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects that the global economy will contract 3% in 2020, however, Spain is likely to contract up to 12%. The unemployment rate is rising, ending with the recovery cycle after the impact of the financial crisis. Some economic sectors, such as the touristic industry, are collapsing.
SWEDEN
Reported by Lucas Henry
Total reported cases: 22,317 (last week: 16,755)
COVID-19 related deaths: 2679 (last week: 2021)
SOURCE:
Sweden’s approach to combating coronavirus, which involves voluntary restrictive measures and an open economy when compared to other European countries, has been widely discussed. Much of the criticism involves comparison to the neighboring Scandinavian countries, which have locked down in much more restrictive ways, but seen far less instances of both infection and death; However, Sweden’s rates are similar to other countries such as Ireland, which has also locked down at the level of Denmark and Norway. Sweden’s open economy has also not been hit as hard as other European nations either, and the projections show that most losses will come from import-export industries, while other domestic industries will fare much better. Overall, Sweden’s economy is expected to contract far less than European nations, and even more than those within the Eurozone.
SOURCES:
https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/04/sweden-coronavirus-response-death-social-distancing.html
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